Reds Take Home Assessment Coaching Presentation

Applications of Pitch Mix Predictions Model

Lucca Ferraz

Importance

  • Knowing next season’s expected pitch mixes allows hitters to better prepare over the offseason
    • A hitter coming off a strong season will be scouted more heavily by opposing teams
    • Opposing pitchers will be smarter and throw pitches designed to catch him off-guard
    • By knowing these pitches ahead of time, he can work on what he is more likely to see

The Model (Brief Rundown)

  • Uses prior season data to predict pitch mixes faced by a given batter the next year
    • Incorporates both pitch mix faced and performance against different pitch types
    • Accurate within ~6% in total on average (within ~2% on average for each pitch type)
  • Model built and tested on the 2021-2023 seasons

The App

  • User selects any player with at least 1000 pitches faced and the season to project their pitch mix for (2022-2024 available)
  • App outputs: pitch mix and stats for the previous season, projected pitch mix for the upcoming season
  • Link to app

Example: Will Benson

Will Benson Stats in 2023
Stat Value
at_bats 329
strikeouts 102
home_runs 11
walks 40
wOBA 0.379
BABIP 0.207
ISO 0.195

Example: Will Benson

Example: Will Benson

Example: Will Benson

  • Had an inconsistent season in 2023, sent down to the minors after his first 8 games but returned in May with a vengeance
  • Since Benson’s overall season performance was not dramatically spectacular or terrible against any particular pitch type, the model projects he will face a very similar pitch mix in 2024

Example: Spencer Steer

Spencer Steer Stats in 2023
Stat Value
at_bats 667
strikeouts 139
home_runs 23
walks 68
wOBA 0.365
BABIP 0.202
ISO 0.168

Example: Spencer Steer

Example: Spencer Steer

Example: Spencer Steer

  • Had a very successful season in 2023, one of the Reds bright young talents
  • Performed very well against fastballs, not as well against breaking balls
  • Model projects that Steer will see more breaking balls at the expense of fastballs
    • Important insight for Steer to prepare to see more breaking balls

Conclusion

  • Model provides good baseline estimate for pitch mix
    • Not perfect, outside factors could affect pitches seen (changing teams, spot in batting order, etc.)
  • Can use app on historical data to test validity